覺得美國大選有冇大規模舞弊？
先回覆#42嘅Benford's Law
我download埋Milwaukee上屆個結果，發現個分佈大致同今屆相若
明顯結果接近一樣，即是一係兩年都造假，或者有另一啲原因
我試下攞曬每一個county嘅選民人數，然後假設投拜登人數係uniform distribution（由冇人投到全部人一齊投）嘅話，的確係應該得到一個好似Benford's Law嘅graph嘅結果
但係拜登喺全個county嘅得票率係七成左右，於是我嘗試修正為假設佢個得票率係50%-90%之間嘅uniform random distribution，然後會得到類似下圖嘅結果
當然，你可以話點解係50%-90%，點解係random distribution，個graph都唔同拜登個實質得票graph，但我主要想示範嘅係，當支持拜登（或者任何一個人）嘅機率唔係完全random嘅時候，Benford's Law就未必生效
與此同時，我搵到一篇論文叫「Benford’s Law and the Detection of Election Fraud」（Joseph Deckert, Mikhail Myagkov, and Peter C. Ordeshook），引言如下：
This essay, however, argues that, despite its apparent utility in looking at other phenomena, Benford’s Law is problematical at best as a forensic tool when applied to elections. Looking at simulations designed to model both fair and fraudulent contests as well as data drawn from elections we know, on the basis of other investigations, were either permeated by fraud or unlikely to have experienced any measurable malfeasance, we find that conformity with and deviations from Benford’s Law follow no pattern. It is not simply that the Law occasionally judges a fraudulent election fair or a fair election fraudulent. Its ‘‘success rate’’ either way is essentially equivalent to a toss of a coin, thereby rendering it problematical at best as a forensic tool and wholly misleading at worst.
簡單嚟講即是冇關係
得閒先搵 Raw data
但係乘法係 preserve Benford's Law，即係可能投票/選民人數本身唔符合 Benford's Law，最簡單原因就係有數字有既定上限或下限
不過你講果篇論文呢，好容易就 google 到話佢 methodology 有錯（唔係結論）
“Benford's Law and the Detection of Election Fraud” raises doubts about whether a test based on the mean of the second significant digit of vote counts equals 4.187 is useful as a test for the occurrence of election fraud. The paper mistakenly associates such a test with Benford's Law, considers a simulation exercise that has no apparent relevance for any actual election, applies the test to inappropriate levels of aggregation, and ignores existing analysis of recent elections in Russia. If tests based on the second significant digit of precinct-level vote counts are diagnostic of election fraud, the tests need to use expectations that take into account the features of ordinary elections, such as strategic actions. Whether the tests are useful for detecting fraud remains an open question, but approaching this question requires an approach more nuanced and tied to careful analysis of real election data than one sees in the discussed paper.
Dominion
老吹一句先
我估計拜登有1500萬至1800萬票係唔屬於佢
嚴格嚟講應該冇乜幾票係屬於佢——投佢又唔係因為鍾意佢
回#51
每個ward嘅投票人數係幾符合條curve嘅，但係乘咗一個固定%（例如拜登得票率70%）就可以唔match
補圖
而我quote篇文係因為我唔係好肯定自己咁解釋係唔係通，想搵多個外部reference
如果篇文冇料到，咁即是話未見到Benford's Law同選舉舞弊嘅關連
回#51
每個ward嘅投票人數係幾符合條curve嘅，但係乘咗一個固定%（例如拜登得票率70%）就可以唔match
咁即係基本上投票人數條curve係not quite fit，因為Benford's Law除左有first digit test仲有generalization
一條standard嘅2-digit Benford's Law curve，將data乘以任何固定%都會符合1-digit Benford's Law
重申一次，投票人數本身唔符合 Benford's Law，最簡單原因就係數字有既定上限或下限
亦有可能係灌票灌到投票人數唔符合
any肥，Benford's Law最多只可以做間接證據
2-digit唔係就咁解第二個位嘅數字？
2-digit唔係就咁解第二個位嘅數字？
頭兩個位
因為有truncation error，當然係多多益善
舉例講，要搵70% data後嘅1字頭，其實係搵緊原data嘅14至28開頭嘅數字，機率加晒就係log(29/14)~log(2)
每個 Ward 都唔過 3500 票，大槪 1500 人會開一個新 ward，應該係除非唔係
訓左無睇
習總發左賀電未？
其實郵遞票就係最大破綻
唔使民主黨自己出手
蝗國搵人換一車選票都唔難
反正班左膠只求侵輸,唔會理公唔公平
達到目的就係正義
其實郵遞票就係最大破綻
唔使民主黨自己出手
蝗國搵人換一車選票都唔難
反正班左膠只求侵輸,唔會理公唔公平
達到目的就係正義
支共啲嘢唔難找到破綻,但真真正正難題係一眾科技AI巨頭聯線再加上舊媒體禁播做到出晒面,呢個先係美國歷來最危機.
你估能唔能夠見到呢個賽果出現
雖然個人某程度上認同拜登＝二戰張伯倫
佢上台嘅話有機會令美國行番舊路，令強國助大
但個人唔認為咁係最差最壞嘅情況（或對強國最有利嘅情況）
最差最壞嘅情況其實係今次大選最終冇辦法得出一個令大眾滿意同信服嘅結果
結果令美國陷入混亂同內鬩，分身不暇，完全冇時間處理同關注外交事務
香港人作為局外人，撐侵定撐登其實根本唔關事或影響到啲乜
反而間接幫助煽動上述最壞情況發生先係最大問題
香港要做嘅從來都唔應該係單純嘅撐某位政客/政黨
或進行嗰啲「告狀式」嘅國際遊說工作（呢啲從來最多只係表面上需要）
真正要做嘅搵到自己定位，同外國建立確實嘅利益關係，即係要確實話到畀人知幫你有乜好處
問吓mark sucker就知
其實點解fox咁鬼, 未數完票(當時相差10萬票, 而家追到1.5萬)判咗arizona係biden贏, 但係其他州(當時相差幾萬至幾十萬不等)又唔見判trump贏
fox判biden贏arizona嗰時, cnn嗰啲都未敢判
其實點解fox咁鬼, 未數完票(當時相差10萬票, 而家追到1.5萬)判咗arizona係biden贏, 但係其他州(當時相差幾萬至幾十萬不等)又唔見判trump贏
fox判biden贏arizona嗰時, cnn嗰啲都未敢判
睇幾間都係啦，阿trump lead 就重數緊
Pedo Joe lead就快快手 projected winner
其實點解fox咁鬼, 未數完票(當時相差10萬票, 而家追到1.5萬)判咗arizona係biden贏, 但係其他州(當時相差幾萬至幾十萬不等)又唔見判trump贏
fox判biden贏arizona嗰時, cnn嗰啲都未敢判
睇幾間都係啦，阿trump lead 就重數緊
Pedo Joe lead就快快手 projected winner
朱西正式落案charge賄選 行賄賓州法官